While housing starts and building permits continue to trend higher, builder confidence, which often dovetails nicely with housing construction figures, has dipped over the last few months.

So what gives?

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which, in conjunction with Wells Fargo, publishes the builder confidence index, waning confidence is not necessarily due to diminishing demand for new homes.

An intelligent analysis of 2013 forecasts for the hardware and building material industries must begin with the recognition of a term that has entered the lexicon of economic forecasting and business predicting.

The term is "head fake."

Existing single-family home sales rose in 120 out of 149 metropolitan statistical areas based on closings in the third quarter of 2012 compared with the same quarter in 2011, according to the national Association of Realtors (NAR), while 29 areas had price declines. In the second quarter of 2012, 110 areas showed increases from a year earlier.

September existing-home sales declined modestly, according to the National Association of Realtors. Inventory continued to tighten and the national median home price recorded its seventh back-to-back monthly increase from a year earlier.  

Total existing-home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.75 million in September from an upwardly revised 4.83 million in August, but are 11.0% above the 4.28 million-unit pace in September 2011.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose six points for July on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the largest one-month gain recorded by the index in nearly a decade, and brings the HMI to its highest point -- 35 -- since March 2007.

According to the tally from the national Association of Realtors, there’s the beginning of a return to normalcy taking place across housing.

Existing-home sales in April rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million, up 3.4% from a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes declined for the first time in seven months this April, sliding three notches to 25 on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The decline brings the index back to where it was in January, which was the highest level since 2007.

Orlando, Fla. -- Perhaps the second half of the seminar title said it all: “How long can the good times last?” A large group of skittish apartment and condo builders attended the multi-family forecast of David Crowe, the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), here on the second day of the International Builders' Show. What they hoped to hear was that the high demand for rental units will continue to fuel multi-family starts, which continue to outpace single family starts.

Orlando, Fla. -- The official housing forecast from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is similar to last year's forecast -- with pent-up demand and improving demographics pointing toward growth in the double-digit percentages.

The list of improving U.S. housing markets tracked by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) almost doubled in January 2012 with the addition of 40 new metro areas. The NAHB’s First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) now counts 76 improving markets, up from 41 in December, with 31 states and the District of Columbia represented by at least one entry.